Problem
When you toss 2 coins at once, will they usually land with the same side up or different sides up?

What this problem is about.
Theoretically, when 2 coins are tossed the chances for each outcome are ½, although with a small number or trials you probably won't get that exactly. Something that the children may not notice when they first play the game is that a same-side toss can be made in 2 ways (heads-heads or tails-tails) as can a different-side. In this problem the children play a simple game that helps them begin to form an intuitive sense of what chance and possibilities mean.

Achievement Objectives
Statistics (level 3)
- predict the likelihood of outcomes on the basis of a set of observations
- use a systematic approach to count a set of possible outcomes.

Mathematical processes
- effectively plan mathematical exploration
- devise and use problem-solving strategies to explore situations mathematically (act it out, organised list, work systematically)

Resources
4 coins for each pair
Paper to record game
Blackline master of the problem (English)
Blackline master of the problem (Maaori)

Specific learning outcomes
The children will be able to:
- predict the likelihood of an event based on data collected
- use a systematic approach to find all possible outcomes

Teaching sequence

1. Introduce the problem as game to be played with pairs.
   Players take turns, one tossing the coins while the other guesses whether the coins will land with the same side up or different sides up. Players record the results of each guess as same or different.
2. As the game is being played get the children to observe what is happening to the totals. Require that the children toss the coins 20 times and write a statement on their results. They should do this again after 50 tosses.
   What can you say about the totals?
   Does one way of landing seem to come up more often than the other?
   Is it better to guess same or different?
3. Share findings from the game.
   Why are there different totals? (develops the notion of chance)
4. Pose the question: What are the different ways the coins could land?
5. Let the pairs find all the possible outcomes of tossing the 2 coins. Ask that they record their work in a way that would convince others that they had found all the possible outcomes.
6. Share strategies for recording outcomes.

Extension to the problem
Repeat the game with 3 coins.

Solution to the problem
When the game is played there will be variation in the results that helps develop intuitive understandings of chance. As more trials are made the results will begin to approach ½ , although it may take at 50 for this to happen.

There are 4 different outcomes when 2 coins are tossed:
HH   TT   TH   HT
This means that it is equally likely that they land with the same sides up as they will land with different sides up.